Can the Scottish team at last end the All Blacks hoodoo?

Things were simpler then. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a Test.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and no wins, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.